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在經濟學人FB上看到一個有趣的新聞
https://www.facebook.com/TheEconomist/posts/10155596642334060

原文網址 https://goo.gl/yaA2S4

Triple-doubles in basketball reflect selfishness as well as
versatility
在大三元華麗數據的背後反映出球員的全能球風以及個人私心


The evidence is convincing that players change their behaviour
 in order to pad their statistics

數據呈現出球員在可能拿到大三元的情況下，改變了他們的行為

http://imgur.com/a/JXLBh  http://imgur.com/XinlBWp


OFF-SEASON drama in North America’s National Basketball
Association (NBA) reached high gear on July 6th, when teams
officially became able to sign free agents. Among the most
momentous transactions so far has been the Oklahoma City
Thunder’s acquisition of Paul George, a star small forward.
Between him and Russell Westbrook, the league’s reigning Most
Valuable Player, the team will present a formidable threat next
year.




Mr Westbrook needs the help. Last season he achieved an extra
-ordinary statistical feat. Basketball′s standard benchmark of
virtuoso versatility is the “triple-double”: a game in which
a player reaches double figures (ten or more) in three separate
categories, usually points, rebounds and assists. Mr Westbrook
managed to average a triple-double for an entire 82-game season.
Only one player had ever done so before, all the way back in
1961-62.




Nonetheless, despite this Titanic accomplishment, the Thunder
were easily eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. It
is hard to reconcile Mr Westbrook′s magnificent handiwork with
his club′s lacklustre showing. But one plausible explanation
is that Mr Westbrook may have focused more on maximising his
own glory than on winning games.



There is of course no way to know exactly what motivated Mr
Westbrook. However, the overall pattern of players's behaviour
provides ample grounds for suspicion. Compiling large statistical
totals is difficult, so it stands to reason that games with lots
of rebounds or assists are rarer than those with just a few. For
the league as a whole, the distributions match the expected
pattern: there are fewer games with nine rebounds or assists than
with eight, fewer with eight than with seven, and so on.



Among players on the brink of a triple-double, however, there is
a conspicuous discrepancy. Players who already have at least ten
points and assists are more likely to finish a game with ten
rebounds than with nine. Similarly, those who already have at
least ten points and rebounds are nearly as likely to wind up
with ten assists as with nine. The comparative dearth of games
with eight or nine assists or rebounds, and surfeit of those with
exactly ten, strongly suggests that players with the opportunity
for a triple-double change their actions on the court in order to
attain one. Their teammates, aware of the glory that a triple
-double can bring, may also help things along. These adjustments
suggest such players are distracted from playing to win.


(PS 圖表上有註明是用http://www.basketball-reference.com/的數據
但是不知道我條件設錯還是怎樣，查不出圖表所列的數字，如果這部份
有錯也請指正，謝謝)

It is possible that Mr Westbrook is an exception to this pattern,
and never took his eyes off the prize of victory. But if he was
indeed guilty of “stat-padding”, next year is likely to be
different. Now that he has matched the record, he may be less
motivated to do so again. And Mr George’s arrival should make
the Thunder a much stronger team. That will give Mr Westbrook a
credible chance to play for a title, instead of mere individual
renown.




其實離大三元越近難度越高，這個大家都知道，只是這裡用統計數字來說話罷了。

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→ realtw: 經濟學人?哈 原來加上這四個字 連人名都沒有的就變權威了 11/16 14:19
→ realtw: 知道啊 經濟學人是英國一個小報啊 就是故意留梗啊        11/16 14:42

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