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作者 標題 [新聞] 印度的經濟奇跡: 國家脆弱不堪，私企蒸蒸日上(經濟學人)
時間 Sat Oct 9 14:59:54 2010
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印度經濟
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印度的經濟奇跡
國家脆弱不堪，私企蒸蒸日上
經濟學人2010年9月30日
惡心的廁所、污水坑中傳播登革熱的嗡嗡作響的蚊子、倒坍的泥瓦建築、松懈的治安、恐怖分子的襲擊、為10月3日即將在德里舉行的72國英聯邦運動會所做的準備，這一切的一切均未給印度贏得好評。“遍地垃圾”——英國小報頭條一個比較溫和的字眼。即使是最理想的情況下，直到最後一分鐘組織者還在盡最大努力將一切安排妥當，德里運動會依舊會是一團糟。這與2008年中國舉辦的幾近完美的奧運會相比簡直是天壤之別。很多人可能
會由此得出錯誤的結論。一般來說，舉辦一次盛大的體育賽事就能對這個國家略知一二。強盛的國家應該建立頂級
體育場，並使公共交通準時準點。然而印度似乎無法做到其中任何一條，它永遠是個二流
國家。
是這樣嗎？盡管說是“遍地垃圾”，印度還並非一無是處。其經濟今年預計將增長8.5％
，雖說要趕上中國經濟（四倍于印度）還有很長的路要走，然而其增長率有望在2013年甚
至之前趕上中國。一些經濟學家認為，在未來25年，印度的經濟增長速度要比任何一個大
國都要快。平心而論，一個擁有12億人口的國家要保持經濟的快速增長實屬不易。
國民力量
為什麼印度經濟將很快開始超過中國，其原因有二。第一是人口。中國的勞動力面臨著老
齡化問題，用不了幾年就會開始萎縮。這是由于一項強制性的獨生子女政策所致，而歷屆
印度政府無一幸免于此。在20世紀70年代，英迪拉 "甘地曾嘗試過類似的政策，她宣布國
家進入緊急狀態並出台了強制性絕育方案。這引來眾多抗議。隨後被迫恢復民主，並放棄
強制性的人口政策。幸好印度現在有年輕的並在不斷增長的勞動力。其撫養率——指兒童
和老人佔成年勞動人口的比例——是世界上最好的之一，而且這樣的情況會持續一代人。
印度經濟將受惠于這種“人口紅利”，這樣的“人口紅利”曾創造過許多亞洲經濟奇跡。
第二個值得樂觀的原因是印度備受嘲弄的民主。民主會阻礙貧窮國家的發展，這樣的想法
近年來已被廣泛認同。誠然，它確實有其不足，民選政府對自私派別和利益集團惟命是從
。即使連最緊迫的決定也爭論不休、一再拖延。
中國並沒有這樣的問題。技術官員說築壩就築壩、說修路就修路、說拆遷就拆遷。拆遷的
村民會得到相應補償，但他們不能阻礙國家的發展。中國的領導人是從長遠來權衡所有公
民的利益並做出合理的決定。這使得中國經濟快速、持續增長，數億人脫貧。難怪各地的
獨裁者以此為借口來反對民主。
毫無疑問，一個強有力的中央政府會使英聯邦運動會少幾分混亂。但這對日常生活的影響
比對羽毛球和藝術體操的影響更大。也許印度政府軟弱，但印度的私營企業都很強。印度
資本主義是由數百萬雄心勃勃的企業家所驅動。自20世紀90年代初開始，當印度取消了“
牌照制度”並對外開放貿易後，印度商業就一片繁榮。該國目前擁有眾多蓬勃發展的小企
業和許多世界級大公司，滿口操英文的大老板們自詡為全球精英。和中國企業家相比，他
們較少依賴政府的資助。而且他們更加具有創造性︰他們設計了價值2000美元的汽車、超
低價心髒手術和一些新的能更有效地響應顧客的管理方式。印度各地的想法很容易流動，
因為它沒有中國的保密和審查文化。加上中國猖獗的盜版問題，因此，諸如軟件等知識密
集型產業更偏向于印度，而非“中央王國”。
印度資本主義個人品牌也許同樣比中國的國企更具生命力。中國的企業在明智的政府主導
下會繁榮昌盛，但反之就會導致比印度更大的破壞性。因為中國領導人一手遮天。如果現
是另一個毛澤東當政，想讓他下台是不可能的，當然這事不可能發生。
這是未來要回答的一個問題。目前，印度的問題顯而易見。道路不平，交通不便。許多精
英企業家每天堵車浪費數小時。他們的公司在建設自己的基礎設施上耗費過多成本︰備用
發電機、水處理廠和接送員工的公司專車。而且如果那些新的員工不能得到雇佣的話，印
度的“人口紅利”就不會起作用。印度的受教育比例在提高，部分原因是因為服務窮人的
廉價私立學校的興起，但依舊遠落後于中國。
印度優勢
印度政府認識到必須解決基礎設施的危機，並以更聰明的方式說服私企來為此買單。但進
度緩慢，且受腐敗的影響。腐敗的尺度不好把握，但許多人認為中國在控制腐敗方面比印
度做得要好，因為中國通常使用殘忍的手段，比如槍決。
如果讓選擇在中國還是在印度辦企業，多數外商投資者可能選擇前者。中國的市場更大，
也易與政府相處。如果你的產品供應鏈在中國出了問題，中國的股東將要求知道為什麼。
但隨著全球經濟更加趨向知識密集型，印度的優勢將會逐漸增加。當你在德里遇到堵車時
，可以思考下這個問題。
India's economy
India's surprising economic miracle
http://www.economist.com/node/17147648
The country’s state may be weak, but its private companies are strong
Sep 30th 2010
HORRIBLE toilets. Stagnant puddles buzzing with dengue-spreading mosquitoes. Collapsing masonry. Lax security. A terrorist attack. India’s preparations for the 72-nation Commonwealth games, which are scheduled to open in Delhi on October 3rd, have not won favourable reviews. “Commonfilth”, was one of the kinder British tabloid headlines. At best—assuming that the organisers make a last-minute dash to spruce things up—the Delhi games will be remembered as a shambles. The contrast with China’s practically flawless hosting of the Olympic games in 2008 could hardly be starker. Many people will draw the wrong lesson from this.
A big sporting event, some people believe, tells you something important about the nation that hosts it. Efficient countries build tip-top stadiums and make the shuttle buses run on time. That India cannot seem to do any of these things suggests that it will always be a second-rate power.
Or does it? Despite the headlines, India is doing rather well. Its economy is expected to expand by 8.5% this year. It has a long way to go before it is as rich as China—the Chinese economy is four times bigger—but its growth rate could overtake China’s by 2013, if not before (see article). Some economists think India will grow faster than any other large country over the next 25 years. Rapid growth in a country of 1.2 billion people is exciting, to put it mildly.
People power
There are two reasons why India will soon start to outpace China. One is demography. China’s workforce will shortly start ageing; in a few years’ time, it will start shrinking. That’s because of its one-child policy—an oppressive measure that no Indian government would get away with. Indira Gandhi tried something similar in the 1970s, when she called a state of emergency and introduced a forced-sterilisation programme. There was an uproar of protest. Democracy was restored and coercive population policies were abandoned. India is now blessed with a young and growing workforce. Its dependency ratio—the proportion of children and old people to working-age adults—is one of the best in the world and will remain so for a generation. India’s economy will benefit from this “demographic dividend”, which has powered many of Asia’s economic miracles.
The second reason for optimism is India’s much-derided democracy. The notion that democracy retards development in poor countries has gained currency in recent years. Certainly, it has its disadvantages. Elected governments bow to the demands of selfish factions and interest groups. Even the most urgent decisions are endlessly debated and delayed.
China does not have this problem. When its technocrats decide to dam a river, build a road or move a village, the dam goes up, the road goes down and the village disappears. The displaced villagers may be compensated, but they are not allowed to stand in the way of progress. China’s leaders make rational decisions that balance the needs of all citizens over the long term. This has led to rapid, sustained growth that has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. Small wonder that authoritarians everywhere cite China as their best excuse not to allow democracy just yet.
No doubt a strong central government would have given India a less chaotic Commonwealth games, but there is more to life than badminton and rhythmic gymnastics. India’s state may be weak, but its private companies are strong. Indian capitalism is driven by millions of entrepreneurs all furiously doing their own thing. Since the early 1990s, when India dismantled the “licence raj” and opened up to foreign trade, Indian business has boomed. The country now boasts legions of thriving small businesses and a fair number of world-class ones whose English-speaking bosses network confidently with the global elite. They are less dependent on state patronage than Chinese firms, and often more innovative: they have pioneered the $2,000 car, the ultra-cheap heart operation and some novel ways to make management more responsive to customers. Ideas flow easily around India, since it lacks China’s culture of secrecy and censorship. That, plus China’s rampant piracy, is why knowledge-based industries such as software love India but shun the Middle Kingdom.
India’s individualistic brand of capitalism may also be more robust than China’s state-directed sort.Chinese firms prosper under wise government, but bad rulers can cause far more damage in China than in India, because their powers are so much greater. If, God forbid, another Mao were to seize the reins, there would be no mechanism for getting rid of him.
That is a problem for the future. For now, India’s problems are painfully visible. The roads are atrocious. Public transport is a disgrace. Many of the country’s dynamic entrepreneurs waste hours each day stuck in traffic. Their firms are hobbled by the costs of building their own infrastructure: backup generators, water-treatment plants and fleets of buses to ferry staff to work. And India’s demographic dividend will not count for much if those new workers are unemployable. India’s literacy rate is rising, thanks in part to a surge in cheap private schools for the poor, but it is still far behind China’s.
Advantage India
The Indian government recognises the need to tackle the infrastructure crisis, and is getting better at persuading private firms to stump up the capital. But the process is slow and infected with corruption. It is hard to measure these things, but many observers think China has done a better job than India of curbing corruption, with its usual brutal methods, such as shooting people.
Given the choice between doing business in China or India, most foreign investors would probably pick China. The market is bigger, the government easier to deal with, and if your supply chain for manufactured goods does not pass through China your shareholders will demand to know why. But as the global economy becomes more knowledge-intensive, India’s advantage will grow. That is something to ponder while stuck in the Delhi traffic.
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※ 來源: Disp BBS 看板: Hindi 文章連結: http://disp.cc/b/145-DJe
※ 編輯: BonneCherie 時間: 2010-10-18 11:16:09 來自: 61-230-196-109.dynamic.hinet.net
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